David Fiske Affiliate Marketing & Web Development

You wouldn't be able to tell looking at my stats. This time last year I started to see a peak but this year it's more reminiscent of tumble weed in a desert. But that's just me and that's the very nature of the industry I choose to work in.

This time last year my freebie counter was struggling to keep up with the amount of odds and ends that flooded in over the year whereas this year is a comparative dribble.

In a nutshell, the recession is making everyone think twice about there actions when it comes to parting with their cash (as far as I can tell). Customers are holding onto theirs longer and merchants are reluctant to send out the odd gift, gadget, toy, etc. :-)

I have a few ideas on what will be big this year and which retailers will benefit. Not actual present ideas - more like buying habits. As an excuse to add a post for the month of November I've decided to share these.
 
Customers

The key is not necessarily saving money - it's spending it more wisely. Well, except for those folk with excessive mortgages who may need to scale Christmas down to a value box of chocolates.

I reckon 2009 will be the year of 3 for 2 offers. WH Smith and Boots are the names that spring to mind first off.

By buying two gifts you end up with three. Buy enough on 3 for 2 and every third person you buy for will cost you a grand total of £0.

I also think that postage will play a big factor in the buying process. The postal strikes may have an impact on buying choices but I suspect this won't have that big an impact unless the strikes roll into December.

I think it's more the cost of delivery that may put people off this year. If Shop A sells an item for £10 and shop B sells it for the same but with £4.95 delivery, I guess most people this year would go for Shop B. Taking a look around some of the gadget shops, I can get the same items (often slightly cheaper) but with free delivery via somewhere like Play. The recession makes customers feel the pinch and so money spend on postage is often viewed as 'dead money'.

I think the biggest winners this year will be companies who offer free delivery (or very low order thresholds) as well as those that offer 3 for 2 deals. The biggest losers (I guess) will generally be companies that sell more luxurious high end products. Not those that sell things at crazy prices (they'll be about the same) just those that sell items in a crowded market where other retailers are offering the same product for significantly less.

It's only a guess but that's certainly how I'm viewing my Christmas shopping this year. Those named above will be doing well out of me :-)

Merchants

Christmas is the time of crazy incentives. As Jason said before most merchants seem to forget that January to August exists as they only start to chirp in September.

This year prizes seem a little more limited. More are offering one major big prize and a couple of tiny runner-up prizes whereas last year most offered a good quantity of prizes. I don't expect to win much this year as I'm currently working on 2010 projects. That said, if any merchants want to send over any gifts the wife and I will certainly be very grateful :-D

That said, I wouldn't mind a holiday to New York or Hawaii or Barbados or London or Dublin, Bali, Paris, or to win a years supply of Thorntons chocs. That said, I really would rather NOT win a trip to meet Marco Pierre White. Thanks but no thanks!

Where Does That Leave Affiliates?

It really depends on your perspective. Personally, I believe the money this year is in promoting brands that have a good solid offering. That said, if it's incentives you desire, it's probably going to be harder this year convincing Joe public to part with their cash.

Here's to a much better Christmas next year :-)